Draw Betting

Betting on draws feels like trying to open a combination lock by using blind luck. You obviously understand how it works, you simply don’t know the code number. You only have to cross your fingers, trust your instinct and make a guess.

That’s what most punters think about draws. It’s a matter of luck instead of analysis. The truth is that, apart from a few circumstances in certain leagues, no team will start a match with the aim of only earning a draw, so sharing points is indeed the most unlikely result. That’s why the draw odds are usually the highest in a set of 1X2 odds, especially when there’s no real difference between two opponents.

Small confirmation possibilities

Focusing solely on draws is the perfect recipe for an unpredictable betting strategy. Especially when you’re building parlay bets. Winning a 5-fold parlay has a tiny 0,41% confirmation probability. Trying to predict five straight draws, even from a variety of leagues, is like searching for a needle in a haystack.

The above is not considered betting. It is gambling.

Instead of placing draw accas it’s perhaps preferable to expect to win the lottery. Although the winning possibilities are virtually non existent, the larger expected profits should give you that warm feeling of being once again “that close to a fortune”.

A different way of thinking

So, what’s my advice? Ignore draws like they never existed and focus elsewhere? Far from it. Draw betting requires a certain analysis, that is based on different criteria compared to finding match winners. If you follow this way of thinking, you’ll see your winning percentage on draws rise, even more than bookies expect.

Important notice: This article is not about “convenient” draws that are common in a leagues’ closing fixtures. If you follow the Italian Serie B, for example, or the French Ligue 2, you’ve certainly bumped into some matches, where the draw is the favorite result. We don’t analyze these kind of matches and we strongly suggest avoiding them. We’ll talk about matches where the draw is by far the second or third likely result, offered at odds similar or above 3.00.

Four golden rules of draw betting

Rule No1: Forget your “conventional” way of analyzing a football match to find the winner. If you’re used to searching for recent form, past results or injuries and suspensions, you need to step back in your detailed reading and look at the match in a different way.

The key word is “motivation”. Will any of the two teams be happy with a draw, regardless if they manage to actually earn one? A team trying to get hold of at least a point, will keep defending till the dying seconds. This makes for an ideal scenario when trying to find draws.

This is somewhat different from the most common view of “draw searching”. Most punters will just glance at the league table and pick the closest teams. Their way of thinking is simple: When two teams are close in the table, they’re similar in quality. And when they’re similar in quality, their chances of cancelling each other out are high. This is rarely common, however. When there’s a small difference between them, they’re both motivated to win the match, not play for a draw. Drawing the match, might even feel like having lost two points.

Rule No2: You’re better off looking for low-scoring teams. Of course there have been goal-fiesta draws (2-2, 3-3 etc.), but a team missing their leading scorer, a key playmaker in the midfield or a they face difficulties in scoring are more likely to draw in the long term.

Rule No3: Watch out for some “convenient” draws BEFORE the last fixtures of the league. In the last matchday any draw results that benefit both opponents are well known to bookies and are offered on extremely low odds. However, if you study carefully each team’s last fixtures, you could focus on some matches that may seem competitive at first glance, but have a high probability of point sharing.

Rule No4: Consecutive draws usually aren’t only a matter of luck. They show a specific team’s mentality or a coach’s way of thinking. Even today there are coaches who are happy to grab a point in an away match and focus only on winning their home ties. So, you should mark the teams that tend to make draw series or have drawn many matches during a certain period of time.

The most unlikely result

Keep in mind that in a well balanced- match the draw in most cases will have the highest odds. What does this reveal? Bookies consider that the draw result has the less possibilities to be confirmed. This is completely opposite to most punter’s view, who consider the draw a reasonable outcome between two similar strength teams. Who’s right? The bookies, of course. If not, they would decrease the draw odds. The draw possibilities on matches, where the draw has the second highest odds (i.e. there’s a clear favorite in the tie) are bigger.

One last piece of advice: When chasing draws, don’t expect a 50% winning percentage. Not even 40%. You should pursue a profit at a winning percentage around 30%. Even a two match acca can be profitable. Don’t push your luck though with fourolds and fivefolds, unless you are willing to lose that extra bit of money.

 

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Top Championship picks for the Christmas period

Matches in the English Championship come thick and fast this Christmas. For those who follow the English Championship supporting their team or for sports betting purposes know that the Christmas period is the mecca of football in the UK.

We have selected some games starting this weekend to be played in the Championship that offers bettors a good chance of winning.

Sheffield Wednesday vs Wolves

This match pits two teams with contrasting forms. Sheffield Wednesday has not won a match in the last five games while Wolves have been utterly dominant in the past five games, results which have catapulted them to the top spot in the league. Basing on form, there is only one winner in this match, Wolves. Wolves have 2.14 odds of winning; Sheffield Wednesday has 3.60 odds of winning while a draw has 3.50 odds according to Bet365.

Birmingham City vs QPR

These two have had a poor start to the season. Birmingham City despite investing heavily in the summer find themselves in the relegation zone while QPR is in 19th position, two places above the relegation zone. In the past five matches, however, Birmingham City has recorded some impressive results. It won one game, drew two and lost two while QPR lost four of the past five drawing just one. With a home advantage, Birmingham City looks like they can edge this one. City has 2.54 chance of winning, QPR 3.10 and a draw has 3.25 odds.

Bristol City vs Nottingham Forest

Bristol City has had an impressive start to the season and it currently sits in the third position on the table while Nottingham Forest sits comfortably in mid-table on position 11. City is on a roll in the league having won three in a row while Forest has lost three of its past five games. Bet365 are going for a City win with 1.90 odds. Forest has 4.20 odds while a draw has 3.79 odds.

Derby County vs Aston Villa

This will be a tightly contested match as both these teams are doing pretty well. Only a point separates Villa from Derby who sits fifth and fourth respectively on the table. Villa will be looking to record a third consecutive win while Derby will want to get back to winning ways after two draws in their last two matches. Bet365 sees the home side edging this one out with 2.29 odds while an away win has 3.50 odds. A draw has 3.25 odds.

Ipswich Town vs Reading

Ipswich Town sits four places above Reading in the table and Bet365 see Ipswich Town as the favourite to win this one. Ipswich lost their last match after two impressive wins against Derby and Nottingham Forest and they are favourites to win this tie with 2.75 odds.

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You can be the next Powerball winner!

We have been told very often that winning the lottery is just a dream, but all we know that it’s a dream worth chasing. Just over a year ago, in January 2016 three lucky Americans won an enormous prize, one of the biggest Powerball jackpots ever. One of the tickets was sold at a convenience store in Chino Hills, California. This southern Californian city has all the making of a place where dreams are spoken into existence.

This jackpot sparked the Powerball craze all around the country. Now the rest of the world has set its sights on the million dollar draw. That’s right, you can play usapowerball from anywhere in the world, you just need to buy lottery tickets online and wait for the official draw, in a matter of seconds your life can have a radical change. The long lines at liquor stores and gas stations in the United States are now rivaled by thousands of ticket buyers from all over the world, because riches are just a few clicks away.

Just a few days ago, a middle aged woman from the American East Coast hit the jackpot, she decided to take her winnings the form of a lump sum. She wanted no spotlight or fame, all she wanted was to enjoy her hundreds of millions of dollars, which amounted to over four hundred million, after taxes.

If nobody hits the jackpot,the millions accumulate for the next draw and that is the reason behind those multimillion dollar figures. Of course that you have to subtract all the applicable taxes from the winnings, but even after that you’ll receive so much money that you can’t even spend in one lifetime. 

If you want to keep as much of the money as possible, the best thing to do is to accept your money in 29 or 30 year installments. But most winners don’t go through that route and decide to get all the money at once, even if they lose almost half of it thanks to federal, state, and sometimes city taxes. Anyhow, it would be a nice problem to have, to decide what to do with all those millions.

Visualize yourself as the next great millionaire, it doesn´t matter if you don’t live in the United States buy your Powerball tickets online and turn your life around for good, the possibility is only a couple of clicks away.

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Parlays and straight bets, which is the best for me?

Betting in sports is something that almost gives us a purpose in life, we love the thrills and nothing beats the sensation of winning, especially if the odds were against us. But when we are just starting in this thrilling activity we should take it a tad slow.

The simplest type of bets are straight bets, we are sure you’ve made lots of these, even as a kid with your friends. But when you are betting through an online bookkeeper it’s a little different, because you are betting against the odds that the bookie gives to each result.

It’s a very basic concept, when two football teams face each other there is one that has more possibilities to win, so in order to entice punters to bet for the underdog bookkeepersgivethem better odds, and the favorite gets lower odds. You can always use an Asian Handicap to make the playing field more leveled, but we will talk about those types of bets in another occasion.

This is the reason football betting tips are so important. It’s impossible to be up to date with all the information surrounding matches, but with the right tips you can gain an edge over the bookkeeper and win some serious cash.

We like straight bets because they let us take better care of our bankroll. Maybe the odds are never as spectacular as they would be in a parlay, but we can still win big if we feel that the odds do not reflect the reality of the team, and happens a lot, you just have to know where to look.

But what about parlays? There is a lot we can say about them, the good and the bad. Parlays are very popular amongst punters because you can win a huge amount of money if you can hit on all the results.

A parlay is a bet where you can combine a series of straight bets to form a “super bet”. To win the bet you have to hit on all the results, and that what makes them a tricky bet. Let’s say you have a parlay with six games, you already won five and you lose the sixth one on the last minute. It all goes to waste, you end up empty handed.

Parlays are a huge temptation, but we think that they are better suited for the more experienced punter. If you are a beginner, straight bets are better for you, at least until you become a money making machine.

 

 

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